If there was one factor I'd have to point a finger to, in order to define profitable sports betting, it'd have to be line movements. Line movements are quite probably the most important when it comes to locating EV , and without the EV , it doesn't really matter how good a bankroll manager you are: you will not succeed in the long-run. Few of the rookie bettors understand why line movements are so important, and even fewer of them ever get to properly track these movements. In order to understand the issue of line movements, you need to first understand why the lines move at all.
One of two reasons behind it (the less relevant one) is based on side notes. Side notes represent travel issues, player injuries, suspensions, you know: the unforeseen game changers. When the lines move on account of the side notes, the motion doesn't really generate extra value for either side of the match-up. The motion is merely there to compensate for the circumstances, and the new lines pretty much properly represent the new balance of the game.
Another reason behind line movements is the incoming action and this is where your focus should be. Player bets can actually influence lines and when they do, there will be value left on one side or the other, value which you should absolutely exploit. How does all this work? It's got a lot to do with the way the bookmaker operates. The bookie makes his profits through the vig. The vig is something like the poker rake. The house takes it off player bets, regardless of who wins. Because it is only interested in the quantity of the incoming action and not in who wins, it is in the interest of the house to balance each match-up. To balance a game means to get an approximately equal number of bettors onto both sides. The winners will thusly be paid with the money the losers leave behind, and the vig is pocketed by the bookie without any jitters. Of course, balancing a game perfectly teeters on the edge of the impossible, but the bookie is usually content with a "close enough". Sometimes however, for a bunch of various reasons, the influx on a given side of a match-up is just too great. Square money is usually the main "culprit" in such cases, because where square money goes is quite impossible to predict, even for the most experienced bookmaker. In such cases, the bookie's first reaction is to re-establish the balance, thus protecting his interests. In order to do that, he moves his lines, to create normally undue value on the other side of the match-up, thus attracting more bettors to the lacking side.
Tracking line movements can be a difficult undertaking, especially for a rookie bettor. If the game you're tracking is a weekly one, you'll have plenty of time to track and to react to the changes. If it's a daily game we're talking about though, the situation changes radically. Whatever the case, make sure you get the opening lines and that you remember them so you have a base for comparison. Keep an eye on the news to see whether or not the movements are due to side-notes. In order to find the hidden value generated by the influx of square money, you need to understand the match-up quite perfectly, and you need to track the lines well too.
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